Nowitzki leads the way as Mavs burn Rockets

Basketball Betting Lines

01/17/2007 - Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dirk Nowitzki scored 30 points and pulled down 10 rebounds, leading the surging Dallas Mavericks to a 109-96 comeback win over the Rockets, despite Tracy McGrady's season-high 45-point night for Houston.

Josh Howard added 28 points for the Mavericks, who rallied from a 13-point third-quarter deficit to win for the fifth straight time and post their 18th victory in the last 19 games. Devean George tallied 14 points and Jerry Stackhouse contributed 13 for Dallas, which has won five of the last six meetings against its Southwest Division rival.

The Mavs also got revenge for a 107-76 loss at Houston on November 4 in the only other encounter between the teams this season.

McGrady was firing on all cylinders, going 17-for-29 from the field, including 4-of-11 from three-point range, but he didn't get much support from his teammates, as the Rockets had their four-game winning streak snapped.

Rafer Alston's three-pointer boosted the Rockets to an 81-79 lead nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter, but the Mavs scored the next seven points to go ahead for good. Howard two straight jumpers, which included a three-point play. Nowitzki's two foul shots made it 86-81 with 8:30 left.

The Rockets couldn't get closer than three the rest of the way. Nowitzki's three extended the margin to 99-88 with 5;55 left

McGrady had 21 points in the opening quarter, but the Rockets were ahead only by a 30-25 count going into the second. The first half remained tight, but the Rockets held a 53-47 advantage at the break. Alston and McGrady hit consecutive three-pointers for the Rockets to end the half.

Houston's lead stretched to 65-52 with 7:47 left in the third after a McGrady three, but the Rockets went over the next three minutes without a point. That was enough for Dallas to use a 10-0 run to close the gap, with George's jumper capping the burst.

Juwan Howard's layup finally ended Houston's drought with 4:28 left in the quarter, but the Rockets trailed 76-74 going into the fourth.

Game Notes

Houston has lost eight of its last nine at Dallas...The Mavs, who are 18-3 at home this season, will host Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday...George went 4-of-5 from three-point range...Juwan Howard had 16 points and Alston 12...Dikembe Mutombo had 10 rebounds for Houston.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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