Ichiro depressed by another lost Mariners season

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 -

SEATTLE (AP) -Seattle Mariners star Ichiro Suzuki is dumbfounded, even depressed at the turn of fortunes his team has taken.

Ken Griffey Jr. is gone, driven home to retirement in Florida. Cliff Lee is gone, too, traded to division-rival Texas instead of teaming with fellow ace pitcher Felix Hernandez to beat the Rangers and everyone else in the AL West.

The Mariners have gone from a popular playoff pick and winners of baseball's offseason to losers during the regular season.

Again.

Seattle begins the second half Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels sitting 18 games under .500, and 15 games behind the Rangers - last in the division. A team built on pitching and defense is failing - and flailing - miserably on offense.

``To be honest with you, I can't even explain in words. It's very, very tough, hard and depressing,'' Suzuki said Monday in Anaheim, Calif., ahead of his 10th consecutive All-Star game.

Seattle's 3.39 runs per game and .238 average are its second-lowest marks at the break in team history. The Mariners' 57 home runs in 88 games is their third-fewest at any All-Star break. Seattle had 102 homers at the break the last time the team made the playoffs - in 2001.

``The media - everyone - expected a lot from us in spring training, and it didn't work out that way,'' the 36-year-old Suzuki said through his interpreter. ``You can't explain it in words. That's how tough it is, mentally.''

Suzuki, who this season became the sixth major league player since 1901 to steal 20 bases in each of his first 10 seasons, is not alone wallowing in the grim reality of a 35-53 record.

``We're all disappointed,'' said manager Don Wakamatsu, who has gone from refreshing in the his rookie season to ripped by fans in his second. ``We came in with high expectations.''

General manager Jack Zduriencik has admitted those expectations may have been too high.

The Mariners lost 101 games just two seasons ago and are still in the early stages of Zduriencik's overhaul of the organization. The team has increased its emphasis on developing minor league players and is remodeling the big league squad into one based on pitching and defense - as opposed to high-priced, free-agent power hitters.

Long-term success is what the GM was looking to when he traded Lee for heralded hitting prospect Justin Smoak and several Double-A players.

``One of the important things for us is to win now, of course, but also build for the future,'' Zduriencik said Friday.

``In this process we are trying to build a World Series championship-caliber club here.''

That seems light years away right now. So what's left in this season?

The 23-year-old Smoak is going to play almost every day at first base. That means Russell Branyan, acquired from Cleveland on June 26 to give Seattle at least one consistent home-run threat, will play more at designated hitter. That leaves Milton Bradley trying to find playing time in left field with young Michael Saunders.

Wakamatsu said he hopes Bradley, who last started on July 3, will get a fresh start this weekend against the Angels following some rest.

The rotation has a 3.55 ERA, the best at the All-Star break in team history. But without Lee it has holes that Triple-A call-up David Pauley is now helping to fill. Erik Bedard, a former ace in Baltimore, was scheduled to make his season debut this month following shoulder surgery last August, but his shoulder began bothering him again. He remains out indefinitely.

The bullpen that was a strength last season is now a liability, epitomized by 2009 star closer David Aardsma's 0-6 record, 5.40 ERA and four blown saves in 20 chances - as many blown saves as he had all of last season.

And the Mariners are closer to their second 100-loss season in three years than any postseason pipe dream.

``I didn't expect this to happen, but ... it's reality,'' Suzuki said. ``We have to deal with it.

``To us players, we can only look forward to a future.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

Casinobaccarat Baseball Betting News

<< Rockets retain Lowry
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets have retained the services of guard Kyle Lowry after matching Cleveland's offer to the restricted free agent guard. Houston general Manager Daryl Morey said on

<< Report: Bobcats agree with G Livingston
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Charlotte Bobcats have reportedly agreed to sign guard Shaun Livingston to a three-year contract worth $10.5 million. The Charlotte Observer first reported the deal, while The Washington Post report

<< Toronto comes back in fourth to top Calgary
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Johnson scored a late touchdown and Toronto scored 12 unanswered points in the fourth quarter as it stunned the Calgary Stampeders at Rogers Centre, 27-24, in its home opener. Defense was key fo

<< Jazz, Bell agree to terms
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz have reportedly signed guard Raja Bell to a three-year contract worth $10 million. According to The Salt Lake Tribune, Bell was scheduled to meet with the Lakers on Wednesday before com

<< Seattle, D.C. could welcome reinforcements for MLS clash
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two Major League Soccer clubs that sit second-from-the-bottom in their respective conferences square off on Thursday night when D.C. United hosts Seattle Sounders FC at RFK Stadium. Both teams have

Daly off to flying start at British Open >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Daly has played golf all over the world the last few years in search of his form that helped him earn five PGA Tour victories. Daly came from out of nowhere to win the 1991 PGA Championship

NBA's West has plea hearing on Md. weapons charges >>
UPPER MARLBORO, Md. (AP) - Cleveland Cavaliers guard Delonte West is scheduled to appear in court in Maryland for a plea hearing stemming from his 2009 arrest for carrying weapons and speeding on a motorcycle.A spokesman for Prince George's County S

McIlroy posts record-tying 63 at St. Andrews >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rory McIlory said the thought crept into his head on 17 that he could set or match the low round in a major. He missed his four-footer for birdie on 17, but closed with a three-foot birdie put

Golf Tidbits: Which 50-something will make a run at the British? >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The British Open returned to the Old Course at St. Andrews this week for the 28th time. No course has hosted more Open Championships. In keeping with the vintage of the historic venue, the story of the las

McIlroy posts record-tying 63; Woods four back >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rory McIlory said the thought crept into his head on 17 that he could set or match the low round in a major. He missed his four-footer for birdie on 17, but closed with a three-foot birdie put

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.