Angels hope to add to Dodgers' woes

Baseball Betting Lines

06/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In addition to calling the same metropolitan area home, both the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Los Angeles Dodgers hold the title of defending division champions. Only one of these teams has been playing like a contender as of late, however.

The Angels will try to pin a sixth consecutive loss on the reeling Dodgers when the Southern California foes continue the latest edition of the Freeway Series tonight at Angel Stadium.

Anaheim extended the Dodgers' woes with a 6-3 triumph in Tuesday's opener of this three-game interleague set, with the Angels scoring three times in both the sixth and seventh innings to overcome an early 3-0 deficit. The win was also the fourth in the row for the Halos in this rivalry, with Mike Scioscia's squad having swept a three-game series at Dodger Stadium from June 11-13.

The Angels have also prevailed in 17 of their past 24 meetings with the Dodgers and own a 9-3 record at Angel Stadium over that span, although the Dodgers did take two of three bouts between the teams at the Big A last season.

Anaheim tied last night's contest on Bobby Abreu's three-run homer off Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw in the bottom of the sixth, then went in front on a Howie Kendrick RBI single one inning later. Kevin Frandsen followed with a two-run double to lengthen the margin to 6-3.

Kendrick finished 3-for-4 and scored twice for the Angels, who have won four of their last five tests and are 14-5 since June 2. The team still trails red- hot Texas by 3 1/2 games for first place in the American League West. Ervin Santana (7-5) did his part as well, with the Anaheim starter allowing three runs and striking out six over the first seven innings to record the victory.

Kershaw (7-4) was charged with giving up five runs in his 6 2/3-inning stint, with the young southpaw fanning six while issuing three walks.

"Abreu hitting the three-run homer was a game-changer," said Kershaw. "He's a good hitter. It was my fault. This one hurts."

The Dodgers have now dropped eight of their last 10 tilts and have fallen into third place in the NL West, three games behind front-running San Diego. The club has not lost six straight times since an eight-game skid from August 22-29, 2008.

A matchup with Joel Pineiro may not help the Dodgers break out of their funk, considering the Anaheim hurler's track of record of success against Joe Torre's team. The veteran right-hander owns a 3-0 record with a 2.67 earned run average in four lifetime starts against the Dodgers and fired a complete- game five-hitter with seven strikeouts in the Angels' 10-1 rout at Chavez Ravine on June 11.

Pineiro followed up with an equally-as-good performance on June 16, limiting Milwaukee to a run on three hits over eight innings to win his third consecutive start. He's pitched to a 2.35 ERA over that strong stretch.

The 31-year-old has gone 6-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 14 starts for the season, his first since signing a two-year free-agent contract with Anaheim in January. In seven starts at Angel Stadium, Pineiro is 3-2 with a very solid 2.40 ERA and surrendered just two homers in 48 2/3 innings of work over those games.

The Dodgers will hand the ball to John Ely this evening, with the rookie hoping to atone for a rough last start. The right-hander lasted just 4 2/3 innings of his team's 7-1 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday and was rocked for seven runs on eight hits, three of which were homers.

Ely had compiled a 3-2 record with an impressive 2.54 ERA through his first eight major league starts, but he's gone 0-2 with an awful 9.20 ERA over his past three assignments and hasn't pitched beyond five innings at any point during that span. One of those defeats came against the Angels on June 12, with the 24-year-old permitting four runs in five frames.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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